Before Book 1 we ranked all 470 yearlings in the catalogue on the HorseBytes System, from the pedigree alone. Then the sale happened. Here is how the prices lined up with our rankings, why some of the biggest prices were nowhere near our top, and what we changed as a result.
363 of the 470 lots changed hands, at a typical price of 230,000 gns. Lots bought back or withdrawn are left out of everything on this page.
We split the 363 yearlings that sold into five equal groups of about 72, from the pedigrees we rated best to those we rated lowest. The 72 we rated best sold for about 362,500 gns each; the 72 we rated lowest for about 130,000.
17 yearlings sold for a million guineas or more. 9 of them were among the 72 we rated best, and 7 were in our top 50 of all 470 lots. Only one came from the 72 we rated lowest.
We put the 363 yearlings that sold in order on the HorseBytes System, the best pedigree first, and split them into five equal groups of about 72 horses. Group 1 is the 72 we rated best; group 5 is the 72 we rated lowest. Then we looked at what each group sold for. Every group down, the prices fell.
| Group (by our rating) | Yearlings | Typical price | Average price | Made 500,000+ | Made 1,000,000+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 — rated best | 72 | 362,500 | 579,028 | 24 | 9 |
| 2 | 73 | 325,000 | 414,356 | 18 | 4 |
| 3 | 72 | 250,000 | 336,319 | 11 | 2 |
| 4 | 73 | 210,000 | 262,890 | 7 | 1 |
| 5 — rated lowest | 73 | 130,000 | 182,562 | 3 | 1 |
We also scored how closely our order matched the price order, from 0 (no link at all) to 1 (exactly the same order). The HorseBytes System scored 0.43 — a clear link, given that price also depends on the horse itself, the vet and who is bidding. Our older pedigree score scored 0.32 on the same yearlings, so the new system reads a pedigree much more the way the buyers did.
Prices in guineas. “Typical price” is the middle price in the group: half the group sold for more, half for less. A yearling bought back in the ring and sold privately straight afterwards counts as sold.
Here they are, with where the HorseBytes System had each one among the 470 lots. Those in bold were in our top 50. "(c)" colt, "(f)" filly.
| Lot | Sire × dam | Guineas | HorseBytes rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | Night of Thunder × My Astra (c) | 4,600,000 | 77th |
| 237 | Frankel × Shambolic (c) | 4,000,000 | 16th |
| 87 | Wootton Bassett × Loch Lein (c) | 3,800,000 | 185th |
| 141 | Wootton Bassett × No Speak Alexander (f) | 2,600,000 | 199th |
| 409 | Night of Thunder × Capture The Heart (c) | 2,200,000 | 114th |
| 433 | Frankel × Crystal Zvezda (c) | 2,000,000 | 31st |
| 27 | Frankel × Get Ahead (c) | 1,800,000 | 9th |
| 276 | Night of Thunder × Sweety Dream (c) | 1,600,000 | 17th |
| 260 | Justify × Stars At Night (c) | 1,600,000 | 338th |
| 277 | Frankel × Swirral Edge (f) | 1,500,000 | 6th |
| 189 | Night of Thunder × Purple Ribbon (c) | 1,500,000 | 10th |
| 196A | Frankel × Queen Power (f) | 1,400,000 | 19th |
| 462 | Justify × Entreat (c) | 1,300,000 | 260th |
| 103 | Ghaiyyath × Maria Christina (c) | 1,300,000 | 393rd |
| 271 | Kingman × Surprisingly (c) | 1,100,000 | 58th |
| 40 | Blue Point × Holly Golightly (f) | 1,100,000 | 179th |
| 404 | Night of Thunder × Cadeau Belle (f) | 1,000,000 | 129th |
The Frankels are the clearest case of the market and the system agreeing: five Frankel colts and fillies made a million or more, and all five were in our top 31. Frankel already has dozens of black-type winners on the track, his yearlings came from strong female families, and buyers paid accordingly.
Most of the big prices we missed fall into a handful of clear groups. None of them means the buyers were wrong — they were paying for things the pedigree on the page doesn't measure.
The sire carries the most weight in the system, measured by the black-type winners he already has on the track. That suits Frankel and Lope de Vega. It underrates sires whose reputation has run ahead of their record. Wootton Bassett’s yearlings sold for a typical 400,000 gns yet were typically only around 208th on our ranking; two of them made 3.8 million (lot 87, 185th) and 2.6 million (lot 141, 199th). Justify colts made 1.6 million (lot 260, 338th) and 1.3 million (lot 462, 260th). The market is buying what it believes these stallions will become.
Godolphin bought 25 yearlings for 26.9 million gns, including five by Blue Point and three by Ghaiyyath — both stand for their own stud. Lot 103 by Ghaiyyath made 1.3 million (393rd on our ranking). Coolmore did the same with Justify and No Nay Never. Good yearlings by your own stallion help his name and his fee, so these prices aren’t only about the racehorse.
Ghaiyyath, Baaeed, Native Trail and Chaldean have no black-type winners on the track yet, so the system scores their yearlings like those of a stallion who has failed. Buyers treat them as unknown, which is different. We tested treating new sires as “unknown” instead — and the system got worse at finding future black-type winners. Most new stallions do disappoint, so the system is right to be cautious, even if it costs it a few big prices.
Lot 462 (1.3 million) is out of Entreat, who was 19 when he was foaled. She had already bred a Prix du Jockey Club winner and a Commonwealth Cup winner. Those black-type foals earned the most points of anything in his pedigree, but his dam’s age took most of them back. On the numbers, older mares produce less; but buyers will pay for a mare who has already produced two Group 1 winners.
Lot 130, the sale-topper at 4.6 million, has one of the strongest families in the sale and sat 77th on our ranking — good, not exceptional, on paper. A gap like that is the yearling himself: his size, walk, X-rays and the judgement of the best eyes in the business. No pedigree index can see that.
The sires in this sale show the first point plainly:
| Sire | Yearlings sold | Typical price | Typical HorseBytes rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frankel | 16 | 565,000 | 26th |
| Blue Point | 16 | 437,500 | 193rd |
| Wootton Bassett | 22 | 400,000 | 208th |
| Ghaiyyath | 7 | 400,000 | 393rd |
| Justify | 6 | 362,500 | 330th |
| Sea The Stars | 25 | 330,000 | 113th |
| Night of Thunder | 22 | 305,000 | 126th |
| Lope de Vega | 20 | 275,000 | 51st |
| Kingman | 11 | 260,000 | 91st |
Lope de Vega and Kingman are the other side of the same coin: proven sires with a long list of black-type winners, ranked high by the system, and sold for less than the fashionable names.
Until now a dam who won a Group 1 counted the same as a dam who won a Listed race. Lot 141’s dam, No Speak Alexander, won the Group 1 Matron Stakes and got no more credit than a Listed winner. The dam’s record is now graded — Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Listed — and in the test on earlier catalogues it made the system slightly better at finding future black-type winners. Lot 141 rises from 249th to 199th.
We also tried scoring stallions with no runners yet as average instead of zero. It would have lifted a few of the big prices in this sale, but on the earlier catalogues it clearly made the system worse at finding black-type winners (the test score fell from 0.66 to 0.63). We keep what works on the evidence, not what flatters one sale.
Every change to the HorseBytes System is tested the same way: on yearlings and foals from earlier catalogues whose racing careers are now known. A change that only makes one sale look better is not made.
The other side of the story: yearlings we rated in the top fifth of the whole sale (roughly our top 95 of 470 lots) that still sold for 230,000 gns or less — the price of a typical yearling at this sale. The three highest-rated yearlings that sold all made 260,000 gns or less (our top-ranked lot wasn’t sold). These are the ones to follow on the track — in two or three years they will tell us whether the system or the market was right.
| Lot | Sire × dam | Guineas | HorseBytes rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | Lope de Vega × Moi Meme (f) | 200,000 | 2nd |
| 432 | Lope de Vega × Crimson Rosette (c) | 170,000 | 3rd |
| 161 | Lope de Vega × Park Bloom (c) | 260,000 | 4th |
| 436 | Siyouni × Curvy | 175,000 | 23rd |
| 370 | Frankel × Astrelle | 180,000 | 25th |
| 48 | Sea The Stars × Indigo Girl | 200,000 | 30th |
| 212 | Kingman × Ring The Bell | 200,000 | 36th |
| 317 | Kingman × Waldfabel | 160,000 | 41st |
| 145 | Lope de Vega × Oblong Song | 170,000 | 43rd |
| 363 | Teofilo × Anya Ylina | 75,000 | 51st |
Lot 161 sold for a little over 230,000 gns; it is included because it was fourth on our ranking. A cheap price can also mean the buyers saw something in the horse that a pedigree can’t show — which is exactly why we will follow them.
The best pedigrees on the HorseBytes System sold for nearly three times the price of the weakest. If you are paying top money, you are usually paying for a top pedigree — and the system will show you which ones.
When a yearling’s price is far above its HorseBytes rank, ask what you’re buying: the horse itself, a fashionable new sire, or a family’s past glory. All can be good reasons — but know which it is.
Lope de Vega and Kingman yearlings ranked high and sold for less than the fashionable names. Proven sires with deep records are where the pedigree is strongest for the money.
The sale-topper was 77th on our ranking. A pedigree index narrows the field; the horse, the vet and your judgement make the decision.
Every HorseBytes sale report ranks each lot on the HorseBytes System before the sale. After the sale it can show the prices alongside — how much the yearlings it rated best made against those it rated lowest — with the top-rated lots that sold cheaply — so you can see where the value was, and follow it on the track.
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